Indian Expats in UAE Advised to Hold Remittances Briefly as Rupee Likely to Weaken

Dubai: Indian expatriates in the UAE planning to remit money to India could benefit by waiting a few days, as currency trends suggest a potential weakening of the Indian rupee (INR). On Wednesday evening, the dirham-to-rupee exchange rate stood at 23.11, rising slightly to 23.20 on Thursday morning.

Currency market analysts expect the dollar – and by extension the dirham – to strengthen in the coming days, potentially pushing the exchange rate higher and giving non-resident Indians (NRIs) better value for their remittances.

“The rupee appears to be weakening based on early market indicators,” said Neelsh Gopalan, Treasury Manager at a leading Dubai-based remittance service. “Wednesday’s rate of 23.11 was on the lower side compared to recent averages. If expats wait, we might see levels rebound to 23.3 or even 23.4 per dirham.”

Over the past 30 days, the strongest INR exchange rate was 23.11 (least favorable for remitters), while the weakest was 23.62 on June 23.

What’s Ahead for the Rupee?

The US financial markets are closed due to Independence Day, and clarity on the dollar’s trajectory may emerge by Monday. The outcome could hinge on the market’s reaction to the new $1 trillion US budget bill, dubbed the ‘Big Beautiful Bill,’ heavily supported by President Trump.

According to Subramanian Sharma, Promoter-Director of Greenback Advisory Services, “If the dollar strengthens, we could see the INR settle in a range of 23.25 to 23.5 per AED (equivalent to Rs 85.4 to Rs 86.2 per USD).”

He added that prospects for a near-term US-India trade agreement could support the rupee. However, any sudden imposition of large tariffs by the US could trigger a sharp decline, potentially pushing the rupee to 86.80 against the dollar again.

India’s forex reserves as of June 20 stood at approximately $698 billion, which economists describe as “quite comfortable.” The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to continue interventions to minimize any excessive rupee volatility.

US Budget Bill: Global Implications

The newly passed US budget bill, which authorizes over $1 trillion in fresh federal spending and a sweeping increase in import tariffs, is being viewed as a critical turning point in global economic policy.

The legislation imposes tariffs on more than 500 categories of imports, including clean energy technologies, electronics, and industrial materials.

Nigel Green, CEO of the deVere Group, warned that this move could mark “the most inflationary economic policy in over 50 years.”

“This bill opens the floodgates of government spending while restricting global supply,” Green said. “It’s a high-risk inflation gamble—and the global economy may bear the cost.”

As global markets digest the implications of this bold fiscal and trade stance, emerging markets like India may experience increased currency volatility in the weeks ahead.