UAE Set to Announce July Fuel Prices Amid Falling Oil Rates

Dubai ∙ The UAE is expected to announce petrol and diesel prices for July 2025 in the coming days. For many residents, these monthly fuel price revisions are closely monitored, as they significantly impact household budgets and daily expenses.

In June, fuel prices remained largely stable compared to May:

• Super 98 petrol: Dh2.58 per litre
• Special 95 petrol: Dh2.47 per litre
• E-Plus 91 petrol: Dh2.39 per litre
• Diesel: Dh2.45 per litre (down from Dh2.52 in May)

Since fuel prices were deregulated in 2015, monthly adjustments have reflected global oil market trends. With the July pricing set to be announced by June 30, many are asking: will prices fall?

Why Are Oil Prices Falling?

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, is currently trading near $69 per barrel, down over 7% this week. This decline comes despite recent geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran that initially raised concerns over supply disruptions.

1. Tensions Ease in the Middle East

While the conflict led to a brief spike in prices, both sides appear to be de-escalating. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route, remains open. “The geopolitical risk premium built up since the first Israeli strike on Iran has entirely vanished,” noted Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM.

2. Oil Surplus Concerns Resurface

Market analysts now anticipate a global oil surplus in the second half of 2025. As global demand weakens and production increases, market attention has shifted away from geopolitical threats to supply-demand fundamentals.

3. OPEC+ May Boost Output

OPEC+, which includes major producers like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, is scheduled to meet on July 6 to consider raising output by 400,000 barrels per day starting in August. “As global production rises and demand wanes, we will likely see oil prices testing the $60–$65 range,” said Robert Rennie, strategist at Westpac.

What This Means for UAE Drivers

If the downward trend in Brent crude continues and there are no major supply disruptions, fuel prices in the UAE could decline in July, bringing some relief after months of high costs.

Although local fuel prices are also influenced by refining, distribution, and operational costs, their strong correlation with global crude prices suggests that lower international oil prices may be reflected at the pump.

However, much still depends on the outcome of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and whether the current Israel–Iran ceasefire holds.

Bottom Line:

UAE fuel prices may drop in July if global oil prices remain low and supply remains uninterrupted. Residents are advised to stay tuned, as the official announcement is expected by the end of this week.