UAE petrol price prediction: Will costs rise in April?

Dubai: With the UAE set to announce petrol and diesal prices for April 2025 in the coming days, residents who are routinely keeping an eye out for updates will track any hikes or dips in retail costs in order to determine how to budget for them.

In March, Super 98 petrol cost Dh2.73 a litre, compared to Dh2.74 last month and Dh2.61 in January, while the cost of a litre of Special 95 petrol was lowered to Dh2.61 in March from Dh2.63 per litre last month and Dh2.50 in January.

With regard to E-Plus 91 petrol, the cost was determined to be Dh2.54 in March, a tad lower from Dh2.55 a litre last month, but higher from Dh2.43 a litre in January. Diesel was charged at Dh2.77, lower than last month’s Dh2.82 a litre and January’s rate of Dh2.68.

Since the UAE deregulated fuel prices in 2015, monthly price adjustments have aligned with global oil trends. The latest revisions are expected soon.
What is driving April fuel prices?
Oil prices have been recovering following US President Donald Trump’s threat to punish nations buying Venezuelan crude.

West Texas Intermediate futures rose for a fifth session to just shy of $70 a barrel, a level not seen since the start of the month. Meanwhile, crude surrendered some earlier gains Tuesday after failing to sustain a break above the 100-day moving average of $69.67.

Trump’s plan to hit buyers of Venezuelan oil with 25% tariffs may complicate business for refiners in China, India and Western Europe. Venezuela primarily supplies heavy, sour crude favored by manufacturers of diesel and fuel oil.

Markets for heavy barrels were trading at a rare premium to the international benchmark Brent futures, indicating tight supplies. Trump’s aggressive trade policies have heightened volatility across global markets, with US oil futures down more than 10% from this year’s mid-January peak.

Some of that pressure has eased of late as a selloff in global equities abated.

Macro conditions to push up UAE fuel prices?
The above developments, i.e. the recent recovery in US crude prices, premium trading price of heavy crude used for diesel and fuel oil and US trade tariffs imposed on Venezuelan crude buyers – both of which suggest supply constraints, and recent stability in equities reducing downward pressure on crude prices, fuel prices in the UAE can see some impact.

UAE fuel prices are adjusted monthly based on global oil price movements. If this upward momentum in crude continues, April fuel prices in the UAE will likely increase or at least remain stable, rather than drop.