Trump 2.0 validates India’s push for strategic autonomy

Like many countries, Indian foreign policy can also appear to be an exercise in non-stop fire-fighting. Today almost all of India’s neighbours have regimes that are not very friendly. But at least India is not threatening to annex anyone like the US is doing with Canada.

Trump 2.0 has come as a bigger shock for the world that anyone could have imagined. Friends and allies find they can no longer depend on the US as an umbrella, and must make their own umbrellas. Foes are doing better but if you ask China, not really. As Europe rushes to increase its defence spending and catch up with years of neglect of defence technology, the world realises the value of strategic self-reliance.

India, like many countries, finds itself to be nervously engaging with the US threat of increased trade tariffs. Even if we buy the view that increased tariffs won’t affect the big picture of India’s exports by much, many sectors and companies may be individually affected. Of particular anxiety in India is information technology services that could face non-tariff trade barriers. The US is India’s largest export market and largest trade partner. Anyone who thinks tariffs won’t affect us much is living in a fool’s paradise. Unless, of course, we can strike a good deal which seems unlikely by April 2.

Apart from renegotiating trade terms with the United States, this moment is also one of opportunity and some self-congratulation. The opportunities are obvious: all of us let down by the US can get into a room and come closer. India’s trade ties with the UK, Europe, Africa and some of its South Asian neighbours have great potential that has been under-exploited. India’s increased economic partnerships with the Middle East exemplify what can be achieved. Despite the Look East policy, the potential with ASEAN countries other than Singapore is also under-utilised. This should also be an opportunity for India to deepen trade ties with neighbours.

Getting it right
But this is also a moment when India can step back and reflect on what it has gotten right over the decades with foreign policy.

Since India’s nuclear tests in 1999, India and the United States have come closer every year, year after year, like a straight line shooting upwards on a graph. Yet, India has stopped short of converting a strategic partnership into a strategic alliance. India never does alliances, and Indian foreign minister S. Jaishankar has often reiterated that India never will.

This may seem a lot like the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) of the Cold War era that India was a founding member of. NAM stood India well during the Cold War, never mind the criticism that India would have been better served being closer to the United States. Similarly, India’s focus on strategic autonomy while doing strategic partnerships in a multipolar world is paying off.

Today the West suddenly finds that the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, the G7 and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation don’t mean much to the United States. President Trump is unilaterally going about upending decades of American foreign policy consensus by trying to negotiate between Russia and Ukraine in his own way.

A fresh look at foreign policy
When Russia first attacked Ukraine, there was much criticism of Indian unwillingness to condemn Russia. The West seemed to take it personally. The tone was one of betrayal as if India was supporting Russia. India was not, and took great pains to explain its neutrality. Abstaining from voting in the UN is not the same as voting in Russia’s favour.

There was also criticism of India making the most of the war by importing discounted crude oil from sanctions-hit Russia. Meanwhile, Europe has continued to import gas from Russia, even if the volumes have declined significantly.

There was holier than thou commentary in the US media asking if India could be a reliable ally, if the US was over-investing in the relationship with India, and if India could even be trusted. The argument was that India was getting close to the US only because it felt threatened by China. But what if China made peace with India?

Welcome to Trump 2.0. The whole world now finds it can’t count on US foreign policy for stable continuity. Nation-states can be fickle: one change of leadership and the pieces on the global chessboard move upside down. We saw this recently in India’s neighbourhood in Bangladesh. There has been some criticism of India putting all its eggs in the Sheikh Hasina basket. But what choice did India have? India maximised its strategic interests in Bangladesh when it could. There will be better days between Delhi and Dhaka when the time is right. That is why strategic autonomy is important in a multipolar world: one must always keep options open.