The much-awaited southwest monsoon is expected to reach the Kerala coast between June 1 and June 5 this year. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has factored in a delay of four days and has said that the seasonal rains would arrive in the Kerala around June 5 with a model error of four days.
A rogue circulation, likely emerging midway off Somalia, is seen as throwing a spanner into the monsoon works.
However, a persisting circulation nearer home over the South-East Arabian Sea, off Kerala and over Lakshadweep, has been engaging the IMD’s attention for several days now.
Meanwhile, the monsoon pieces are falling right into place elsewhere over Maldives where all indications are that the rains may have established. The normal timeline of onset is mid-May. Scattered showers and few thunderstorms have been forecast for the country, to the South-West of Sri Lanka.

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