Which way is Rajasthan headed?

There are two major developments in turbulent Rajasthan politics on July 27. The governor finally gave permission for the assembly to be convened in Rajasthan. The permission came after the governor had twice rejected Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s recommendation to convene the Assembly. The second incident was the withdrawal of the petition filed by the Speaker of the Assembly at the Supreme Court.

Earlier, Governor Kalraj Mishra had said that the Assembly would not be allowed to be convened in Rajasthan in the face of the COVID-19 threat. Last week, the MLAs along with Ashok Gehlot gathered at the governor’s residence but he was not ready to change his stand. The Congress had alleged that the BJP was playing political drama with the support of the governor. Finally, on July 27 the governor changed his mind. Permission was granted on the condition that the assembly could be convened only if the government gave 21 days’ notice.

It was at this juncture that Assembly Speaker C.P. Joshi withdrew his petition in the Supreme Court against the High Court’s move against the dissident MLAs. The speaker, who was steadfast on his stand that he would disqualify dissident MLAs, was seen withdrawing from legal action for the time being.

Weeks after the start of Sachin Pilot’s revolt against Ashok Gehlot, there is no sign of an immediate end to the drama, let alone new dramatic developments unfolding from day to day. Even though the Congress has so far rejected the legal move in the Supreme Court, they are facing another legal battle. The BJP has filed a petition in the Rajasthan High Court against the merger of six BSP MLAs in the Congress 10 months ago.

The political drama has been further complicated by the fact that the BSP leadership has given a whip to its six MLAs asking them to vote against the government if there is a no-confidence motion in the Assembly. Gehlot claims the support of 103 MLAs, including the six BSP MLAs. Without their support, the government is sure to fall.

There is now complete uncertainty as to whether the Congress-led government, which came to power with sufficient popular support, will be able to stay in power in Rajasthan. The governor, who had secretly vowed to give Gehlot a chance to prove his majority, has now unexpectedly changed his mind. The Congress will have to work doubly hard to secure a vote in favour of Gehlot in the Assembly.

The Congress must drudge to overcome the BJP’s tactics of seizing power even if it does not win elections. With its money power, the BJP is the strongest force in the post-election horse-trading.

With the BJP’s insurmountable party machine and the immense ‘money’ it possesses, J.P. Nadda does the magic of a footballer who scores goals even in the most impossible situations with Amit Shah in the shadows. It remains to be seen whether this footwork will be repeated in Rajasthan.