BRUSSELS: Europe is facing growing concerns that it could become a dumping ground for low-cost Chinese goods as trade tensions escalate between the United States and China. The European Union’s trade surplus with China soared to a record $90 billion in the first four months of 2025, prompting fears of increased rerouting of exports due to heightened US tariffs.
While much of China’s redirected exports are currently flowing through Latin America and Southeast Asia, analysts warn that Europe may soon experience an influx as China seeks to retain its global market share.
“European and non-US markets will likely see more Chinese shipments,” said Maxime Darmet, senior economist at Allianz Trade. “China will look to compensate for the US market by targeting others.”
This concern comes amid a fragile EU-China trade relationship. China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng is in Paris this week to meet French officials following a temporary 90-day tariff truce between Beijing and Washington. Despite the easing, US tariffs remain around 30 percentage points higher than at the start of the year.
The falling yuan has further boosted Chinese exports by making them cheaper for European buyers, deepening the EU’s trade imbalance with China. Meanwhile, European officials are monitoring potential trade diversions closely. EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic confirmed that preliminary findings will be discussed at a trade ministers’ meeting in Brussels this week.
At the heart of Europe’s concerns is the rise in Chinese exports of electric and conventional vehicles, which has drastically reshaped trade dynamics with Germany. China’s trade balance with Germany alone flipped from an $18 billion deficit in 2020 to a $12 billion surplus in 2024 — and is on track to exceed $25 billion this year.
Economists argue this trend may signal a deeper issue: Europe’s waning competitiveness. “In an era of protectionism, you can’t have open trade — it destroys your industry,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis.
Pressure is mounting on the EU to adopt stronger protectionist measures, including new tariffs and industrial policies, to shield its nascent sectors from being overwhelmed by China’s manufacturing power.
